Measures of Significance in HEP and Astrophysics

نویسنده

  • James T. Linnemann
چکیده

Significance testing for a possible signal in counting experiments centers on the probability that an observed count in a signal region, or one more extreme, could have been produced solely by fluctuations of the background source(s) in that region. Statisticians refer to this probability as a p-value. The traditions for calculating signal significance differ between High Energy Physics (HEP) and High Energy Gamma Ray Astrophysics (GRA). Both fields often quote significance in terms of equivalent standard deviations of the normal distributions (statisticians sometimes refer to this as a Z-value). I will present several of the commonly used methods in HEP and GRA, apply them to examples from the literature, then discuss the results. Here I will concentrate on observed significance, the significance of a particular observation, rather than predictions of significance for a given technique as a function of exposure. The prediction problem is slightly different, involving the power of the test, or the probability of making an observation at a given significance level. GRA has emphasized simple, quickly-evaluated analytical formulae for calculating Z directly (choosing asymptotically normal variables), while HEP has typically calculated probabilities (p-values) and then translated into a Z-value by p = P (s ≥ observed | assume only background);

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تاریخ انتشار 2003